Activity continues to grow, but supply tensions are increasing

The Banque de France publishes its economic survey and confirms its activity estimate for the month of September, which reflects a continued recovery in construction and services, but temporary difficulties in industry, linked to the supply. Inflation is rising in September, but core inflation is falling.

The Banque de France confirms its estimate of activity for the month of September (at −½% compared to the pre-crisis level), with the continued recovery in construction and services. This would translate into GDP growth of + 2.3% in Q3 2021, less than the + 2.7% estimated by INSEE in its economic report of October 6.

According to the main economic survey of the Banque de France, the business climate in industry is deteriorating, while the climate in services and construction for their part are progressing slightly. Industry and construction are increasingly penalized by supply difficulties affecting a growing share of companies in the sector (56% in September against 51% in August in industry, and 62% after 61% in the building). According to the final results, the consumer price index rose in September to + 2.2% (yoy) after 1.9%. Core inflation decelerated, however, standing at + 1.3% year on year in September, after + 1.5% in August.